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28 March, 2009

Don't Ask The City Analyst

The rate of inflation is down today, or is that up, hurray, or boo, or whatever we are supposed to say when they announce these things on the news.

Apparently the rate is "more than expected" or was that less that predicted, by the city analysts. This got me wondering what these people actually do, and more to the point why.

I imagine they skulk about in dark basements wearing pullovers with leather patches on the elbows and glasses held together with elastoplast, but other than that I can't guess.

They didn't predict the banking crash nor the stock exchange falling over, the jump in oil prices in the summer or the fall of the Pound against the Euro, and today they didn't get the inflation rate right either.
You would expect that if your job involves looking at a single digit number and calculating by how much it will change in a month there would be a risk you could get it right by accident. But time and again the geeks in the basements are "surprised", "caught out" or just plain wrong.

The only reason for predicting these thing seems to be so that other people can "give a warning" as the news always seems to be of city analysts warning that this that or the other will happen.

Despite all their working out, giving warnings and predicting we are still on a sinking ship with a mad Scot at the helm.

Its not rocket science, so Ill have a bash at predictions for the next 6 months:-
Inflation will rise to above where it was predicted to fall below in the previous 12 months with GDP falling less that was first predicted in the last half of the first quarter of last year. The trade deficit will be below the water line in most regions with a general scattering or barnacles over 3%. There is a warning that house prices will move and mortgage lending will continue.

OK,OK I know its all rubbish, but at least I know its rubbish.

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